Mortgage Rates & a 75% chance of hike in December?

September 21st, 2017

Rates Effective September 21, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination fee on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: A day after the Fed announced the "Great Unwind", Mortgage Bond prices are modestly higher. Carefully floating is recommended.

After close Commentary: Mortgage Bond prices were little changed from yesterday's close though they closed below today's best levels after yesterday's Fed statement signaled the "Great Unwind" of the Fed's balance sheet about to take place beginning in October. Today's better than expected Philly Fed and lower Weekly Initial Jobless Claims could have weighed on prices somewhat, given that Stocks ended lower. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed unchanged at 103.09, just above support two at the 100-day Moving Average (103.05). The Dow ended its nine day wining streak closing at 22,359.23, -53.36 points. The S&P fell 7.64 points to 2,500.60, while the NASDAQ was down 33.35 points to end the session at 6,422.69. WTI oil closed near unchanged at $50.71/barrel. 10-yr yield 2.27%. There are no economic reports due for release tomorrow.

 

Late morning Commentary:   Freddie Mac released its September Economic & Housing Research Outlook this week revealing that the economic environment remains favorable for the housing and mortgage markets. For several years, Freddie says we have had moderate economic growth of about 2% a year, solid job gains and low mortgage interest rates. Freddie Mac sees those conditions persisting into next year. Freddie Mac sees a gradual increase in housing starts, moderate increases in mortgage rates that will help to reduce house price growth in 2018, and forecasts average U.S. house price growth of 4.9% next year.

In addition, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to average 4% in 2017 and 4.4% in 2018 while total mortgage originations will be $1.695T in 2018. Freddie Mac also sees the mortgage market shift away from refinance-dominated to a more purchase-oriented market. Freddie Mac forecasts that the refinance share of mortgage activity will decline to 25%, the lowest annual refinance share since 1990. In conclusion, for existing homeowners, rising home prices help increase their home equity. Homeowners looking for home improvement, to consolidate other debt or pay off student debt can cash-out home equity to do so.

And after two months of declines, mortgage rates edged higher in the latest week as Bond prices dropped pushing yields higher. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 5bp this week to 3.83% with 0.5 added on top of the rate in points and fees. Last year this time the rate was 3.48%. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage was up 5bp to 3.13% this week, up from 2.76% last year.

Thu, Sep 21 9:34 AM The S&P 500 opens slightly lower.
Thu, Sep 21 9:27 AM The Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed at record highs 42 times this year.
Thu, Sep 21 9:11 AM The Atlanta Fed forecasts 2.2% GDP for Q3 2017.
Thu, Sep 21 8:33 AM The September Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 23.8, above the 17.1 expected and above the 18.9 recorded in August.
Thu, Sep 21 8:31 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims decline 23K to 259K, below the 310K expected.
Thu, Sep 21 8:18 AM Weekly Claims and the Philly Fed Index will be released at 8:30.
Thu, Sep 21 8:15 AM Fed Fund Futures now show a 75% probability of a hike to the fed Funds Rate at the December meeting, up from 25% early last week.
Thu, Sep 21 8:14 AM U.S. dollar index 92.24, -0.06.
Thu, Sep 21 8:12 AM WTI oil $50.81/barrel, -$0.50.
Thu, Sep 21 8:10 AM The 10-yr T Note yield at 2.26% near unchanged.
Thu, Sep 21 8:07 AM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon is trading slightly higher.
Thu, Sep 21 8:03 AM After yesterday's Fed statement and subsequent announcement of unwinding its balance sheet, Mortgage Bonds look to open near unchanged while S&P futures hug the flat line.

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

Mission Statement

As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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