Mortgage Rates & Fed Day

September 20th, 2017

Rates:   See Full Rate Sheet Wednesday: https://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/10267/full-rate-sheet-wednesday

Suggestions that can change during the day:  Mortgage Bond prices are near unchanged ahead of today's 2:00 p.m. ET release of the Fed statement. Carefully floating is recommended.

After close Commentary: Coming Soon

Wed, Sep 20 2:09 PM 10-yr yield rises to 2.27%.
Wed, Sep 20 2:08 PM Fed says hurricanes will affect near-term economic activity
Wed, Sep 20 2:06 PM Fed: Labor market continues to strengthen.
Wed, Sep 20 2:05 PM Most Fed members see three rate hikes in 2018.
Wed, Sep 20 2:03 PM Fed statement more hawkish than anticipated.
Wed, Sep 20 2:02 PM Inflation to remain below the 2% target for some time.
Wed, Sep 20 2:01 PM Fed leaves rates unchanged. Announces the beginning of unwinding of its balance sheet in October by $10B a month.

Late morning Commentary:   The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reports that Existing Home Sales in August fell 1.7% from July to an annual rate of 5.35 million units versus the 5.42 million expected. From August 2016 until August 2017, sales were up 0.2%. Sales fell for the fourth time in five months due to the ongoing themes: high prices and low inventories. "Steady employment gains, slowly rising incomes and lower mortgage rates generated sustained buyer interest all summer long, but unfortunately, not more home sales," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

The NAR said that the gains seen in the Northeast and Midwest were outpaced by the declines in the South and West. The median existing home price in August was $253,500, up 5.6% from August 2016 and marks the 66th straight month of year-over-year gains. There is just a 4.2 month supply of inventories where more normal levels are around 6 percent. In addition, 51% of existing homes sold closed in less than a month.

It's just the middle of September but 2017 holiday sales expectations are already being published. Management consulting firm Deloitte reports that holiday sales can increase by 4.5% over last year's shopping season, according to its annual retail holiday sales forecast. Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's senior U.S. economist said, "Last year, disposable personal income grew 2% over the year to the holiday period, and we may see that rise to a range of 3.8% to 4.2% this season. Consumer confidence remains elevated, the labor market is strong and the personal savings rate should remain stable at its current low level." 

Wed, Sep 20 10:02 AM August Existing Home Sales -1.7% from July to an annual rate of 5.35M vs the 5.42 million expected.
Wed, Sep 20 9:53 AM The MBAs reported mortgage rates do come with at least 0.30 in points and fees.
Wed, Sep 20 9:30 AM S&P opens near unchanged.
Wed, Sep 20 8:48 AM Over 200 dead after the huge earthquake rocked central Mexico yesterday.
Wed, Sep 20 8:35 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr conforming mortgage rate at 4.04%, jumbo 3.99%, FHA 3.97%.
Wed, Sep 20 8:34 AM The MBAs refinance index -8.5%, purchase index -10.8%.
Wed, Sep 20 8:31 AM The MBA reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, fell nearly 10% in the latest week, despite rates hovering near YTD lows.
Wed, Sep 20 8:26 AM August Existing Home Sales will be released at 10.
Wed, Sep 20 8:23 AM U.S. dollar index 91.49, -0.08.
Wed, Sep 20 8:23 AM The Street feels that the Fed is likely to say that it will start unwinding its massive $4.5T balance in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities in October.
Wed, Sep 20 8:22 AM WTI oil at $50/barrel +$0.54.
Wed, Sep 20 8:21 AM The yield on the 10-yr T Note at 2.23% from 2.24% yesterday.
Wed, Sep 20 8:11 AM Ahead of the release, Mortgage Bonds open modestly higher while S&P futures point towards a flat opening after the Dow (22,370.80), S&P (2,506.65) and NASDAQ (6,461.65) all closed at record highs yesterday.
Wed, Sep 20 8:09 AM It's Fed Day! The Fed members will release the monetary policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET where it is expected that the Fed Funds Rate will remain unchanged at 1.25%.

**Rate Assumptions  coming soon

 

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

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