Mortgage Rates & Fed Meeting

September 18th, 2017

Rates Effective September 18, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates. Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bond prices are flat to slightly lower ahead of the two-day Fed meeting the begins on Tuesday. Carefully floating is recommended.

After close Commentary: Not a lot of movement in the Mortgage Bond market for most of the session as traders brace themselves ahead of Wednesday's monetary policy statement. And where there is a near zero percent chance of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate, the Fed may drop some hints or come out and say when they intend to begin unwinding it massive $4.5T balance sheet. There were no economic reports released today. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 103.22, -6bp and right on support at the 50-day Moving Average. Stocks closed higher as the Dow and S&P closed at record high levels. The Dow closed up 63.01 points to 22,331.35, the S&P 500 closed at 2,503.87, +3.64 points, while the NASDAQ closed at 6,454.63.63, +6.17 points. WTI oil closed near unchanged at $49.91/barrel. 10-yr T Note yield 2.23%. Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released tomorrow. The 2-day Fed meeting kicks off on Capitol Hill tomorrow, but there will be no headlines until Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET when the statement is released.

Late morning Commentary: Home builder's confidence slipped a bit in September from August as the latest hurricanes here in the U.S. raised members' concerns about the availability of labor and the cost of building materials. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported on Monday that its Housing Market Index fell three points to 64, below the 67 expected. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The NAHB did say, "With ongoing job creation, economic growth and rising consumer confidence, we should see the housing market continue to recover at a gradual, steady pace throughout the rest of the year."

The amount of homes being flipped for profit decreased in the second quarter of 2017 while returns declined for the third consecutive quarter, reports ATTOM Data Solutions, a multi-sourced property database. There were 53,638 single-family homes and condos flipped during the second quarter of 2017, which was 5.6% of all home sales. That is down from 6.9% in the first quarter though unchanged from the same period as last year. The report defines home flipping as a property that is sold in a short amount of time for the second time within a 12- month period.

The two-day Fed meeting kicks off tomorrow and ends on Wednesday with the 2:00 p.m. ET release of the monetary policy statement. The statement will be accompanied by the Fed's economic projections. Fed Chair Yellen will hold a news conference following the statement release at 2:30 p.m. ET. At this point in time, there is a near zero percent chance of a hike to the short-term Fed Funds Rate at this week's meeting.

Mon, Sep 18 10:33 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon hits a fresh session low as Stock prices edge higher.

Mon, Sep 18 10:14 AM Fed Fund Futures show a 56% chance of a hike to the short term Fed Funds Rate in December.

Mon, Sep 18 10:09 AM The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all hit record highs as financials and industrials fuel the surge.

Mon, Sep 18 10:02 AM The NAHB Housing Market Index slips to 64 in September, down 3 points from August and below the 67 expected.

Mon, Sep 18 10:00 AM Returns from home flipping decline for the third consecutive quarter. Fewer investors flipped homes in Q2 2017.

Mon, Sep 18 9:30 AM Stocks open higher, Dow + 50 points.

Mon, Sep 18 9:12 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon edges lower.

Mon, Sep 18 8:46 AM There are no Treasury Note or Bond auctions this week.

Mon, Sep 18 8:45 AM The rest of the week's economic reports includes Housing Starts and Building Permits, Existing Home Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless and the Philly Fed.

Mon, Sep 18 8:31 AM S&P futures higher as North Korean tensions ease and as the equity markets feel that the Fed is hold for interest rate hikes.

Mon, Sep 18 8:26 AM Economic reports willl most likely take a backseat to the Fed meeting this week.

Mon, Sep 18 8:22 AM There is a near zero percent chance of a hike to the short term Fed Funds Rate at this week's meeting. However, Wall Street will be closely listening for any clues as to when the Fed may begin to unwind its massive $4.5T balance sheet.

Mon, Sep 18 8:20 AM This week's Fed meeting features the economic projections and a press conference by Fed Chair Yellen following the meeting at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Mon, Sep 18 8:18 AM WTI oil $49.612/barrel, $0.28.

Mon, Sep 18 8:18 AM U.S. dollar index 91.84, near unchanged.

Mon, Sep 18 8:16 AM The 10-yr year T Note yield edges higher to 2.21%, near unchanged.

Mon, Sep 18 8:15 AM The NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET this morning.

Mon, Sep 18 8:14 AM Mortgage Bonds begin the week near unchanged ahead of the closely watched two-day Fed meeting that kicks off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday at 2:00 pm. ET with the release of the monetary policy statement.

***Rate Assumptions

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

Some products may not be available in all states.
Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
Lending services may not be available in all areas.
Some restrictions may apply.
Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
*30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
**15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.