Mortgage Rates & Consumer Pulling Back

September 15th, 2017

Rates Effective September 15, 2017 10:30 AM EST

 *30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

 Conforming loans $424,100 and under

 No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bond prices are near unchanged after some push-pull economic data. Carefully floating is recommended.

Weekly Newsletter:

Monthly Newsletter:

After close Commentary: MBS traded in a tight range for most of the session finishing slightly lower after hitting highs seen in November last week. Today's push-pull economic data had little impact on the markets. The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon lost 69bp this week from last Friday's close settling at 103.25, -9bp. Today's negative geo-political headlines were unable to spark a rally in Bond prices. Stocks closed higher as the three major indices notched closing record highs. The Dow recorded its largest weekly gain since the week of December 9 closing at 22,268.34 +64.86 points. The S&P closed at 2,500.23 + 4.61 points while the NASDAQ gained 19.38 points to end the week at 6,448.46. WTI oil closed at $49.89/barrel, unchanged but up 5.1% for the week. The yield on the 10-yr T Note closed at 2.20%. The big event next week is the two-day Fed meeting that kicks off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the 2:00 p.m. ET release of the monetary policy statement. Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference following the statement at 2:30 p.m. ET. The monetary policy statement will be accompanied by economic projections. Housing Starts, Building Permits and Existing Home Sales will be released next week. Have a great weekend!

Late morning Commentary:  The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumers pulled back on spending in August due in part to a drop in car sales attributed to Hurricane Harvey in southern Texas. Retail Sales fell 0.2% in August versus the 0.1% increase expected while July was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.6%. Retailers have been suffering a bit with in-store traffic, but sales at on line retailers declined 1.1% in August too, the biggest drop since April 2014.

Oil prices continue to push higher as West Texas Intermediate oil hit $50/barrel this morning, the best levels since early August as the U.S. dollar continues to come under pressure. Oil is traded in dollars and a weaker greenback helps to push oil prices higher. Gas prices pushed higher due to Hurricane Harvey as many refineries were shut down. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is at $2.64 up from $2.35 a month ago before Harvey hit the Gulf Coast.

Geo-political headlines hit the wires this morning and they have been commonplace for quite some time now. Across the globe, North Korea fired a second ballistic missile over Japan, while an explosion in a London Tube station during the morning rush hour injured 22 people and is being treated as a terrorist attack. The U.N. Security Council is set to meet later on Friday to discuss the latest North Korean missile launch at the request of the U.S. and Japan.

9:38 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon Down 0 bp at a price of 103.34  up 6 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.28 High 103.34 Low 103.28

Psychological numbers New First level of Support 50 day moving average 103.13,  New Second Level of support 100 day moving average  $103.03   

First level of resistance  25 day moving average 103.41 Second level of resistance $103.69 low of 11/10/16. The Presidential election was 11/08/16.  On that day the MBS closed at $104.91

Fri, Sep 15 9:32 AM S&P opens near unchanged.
Fri, Sep 15 9:30 AM U.S. dollar index 91.67, -0.44.
Fri, Sep 15 8:50 AM July Retail Sales revised lower to 0.3% from 0.6%.
Fri, Sep 15 8:35 AM Not much reaction to the push-pull economic data. Retail Sales lower, Empire Manufacturing better than expected.

Fri, Sep 15 8:34 AM Empire Manufacturing in September 24.4 vs the 20 expected.

Retail Sales - Investopedia
BREAKING DOWN 'Core Retail Sales' Core retail sales data is used extensively by various government bureaus to calculate GDP, develop consumer price indexes and analyze current economic activity, while the Federal Reserve uses the numbers to assess recent trends in consumer purchases.
Fri, Sep 15 8:31 AM August Retail Sales -0.2% vs the 0.1% expected.
Fri, Sep 15 8:14 AM WTI oil at $50.10/barrel, +$0.21 as "Black Gold" and "Texas Tea" hits the high seen in early August.
Fri, Sep 15 8:13 AM S&P futures near unchanged.
Fri, Sep 15 8:13 AM 10-yr yield near unchanged at 2.20%.
Fri, Sep 15 8:12 AM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon opens near unchanged as it continues its sideways pattern.
Fri, Sep 15 8:10 AM An explosion in a London Tube station during the morning rush hour injures 22 people, treated as a terrorist attack.
Fri, Sep 15 8:09 AM North Korea fires second ballistic missile over Japan.

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice. does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  


John Marbury
Mortgage Lender NMLS# 514390
NMLS# 740833
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209

Mission Statement

To be the simplest and most informative mortgage website on the market today. To make the mortgage process as easy as possible, by informing and educating the consumer on what to expect and how much it is going to cost.

Sign Up Now!