Mortgage Rates & Consumer Inflation Heating Up

September 14th, 2017

Rates Effective September 14, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day:   Hotter inflation date from the CPI weighs on Mortgage Bond prices, though they seem to be stabilizing. Carefully floating is recommended. 

After close Commentary: MBS closed modestly higher in today's session with Stocks prices mixed though the Dow managed to close at a fresh record high. Today's slightly hotter CPI did cap Bond prices but inflation continues to run low. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 103.34, +6bp. The Dow closed at 22,203.48, +45.30 points, the S&P fell by 2.75 points to 2,495.62, while the NASDAQ lost 31.04 points to end the session at 6,429.08. WTI oil closed at more than a six-week high of $49.89/barrel, +$0.59. The 10-yr T Note yield closed at 2.18%. Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Empire Manufacturing data will be released tomorrow morning.

 

Late morning Commentary:  Consumer inflation heated up in August fueled by a spike in gasoline and rental prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at its fastest pace in seven months rising 0.4% in August from July. On an annual basis, CPI rose 1.9% from 1.7% in July. Within the report it showed that medical costs increased just 1.8% over the past 12 months, the smallest increase since 1965. The so-called Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose 0.2%, which was in line with estimates. The CPI is a measure of the average price level paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services.

Mortgage modification rates declined for third time this year hitting lows not seen since December 2016. Both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae lowered the modification rate to 3.875% from 4%. The 3.875% is the lowest in 2017, but the lowest rate was 3.5% back in August of 2016. With a mortgage modification, you and your lender will agree in writing to change one or more of your loan terms in order to make your payments more affordable and sustainable. The modified terms can include your interest rate, loan duration, and loan type (e.g., changing from an ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage).

The massive breach at credit bureau Equifax has now brought the company under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Last week, the company announced that hackers compromised critical personal data on nearly half of all U.S. consumers. In addition to the FTC investigation, Equifax CEO Richard Smith is expected to testify in early October at a congressional hearing surrounding the cyberbreach. Mr. Smith will appear on October 3 in front of the House Subcommittee on Digital Commerce and Consumer Protection.

12:23 PM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon Down 0 bp at a price of 103.28  down 0 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am et Open 103.38 High 103.34 Low 103.25

Dailey Moving averages we are currently above:  200 $102.60  100  $103.02   .  Others numbers psychological numbers New First level of Support 25 day moving average 103.41,  New Second Level of support 50 day moving average 103.13

First level of resistance $103.69 low of 11/10/16 Second level of resistance $103.90 half of the trading range of 11/10/16.  The Presidential election was 11/08/16.  On that day the MBS closed at $104.91

 

Thu, Sep 14 11:46 AM Not much movement in both the major Stock averages and Mortgage Bonds for the past hour.
Thu, Sep 14 10:06 AM Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed-rate mortgage was unchanged this week at 3.78% with an average point of 0.5 added on top of the rate.
Thu, Sep 14 9:58 AM The Dow turns positive.
Thu, Sep 14 9:45 AM Stocks trading modestly lower soon after the opening bell.
Thu, Sep 14 9:28 AM Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae cuts the mortgage modification rate from 4% to 3.875%.

Thu, Sep 14 8:40 AM MBS quickly bounce back to unchanged.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Investopedia

www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them.
Thu, Sep 14 8:38 AM The increase in the Consumer Price Index was due in part to a spike in gasoline prices as they rose 6.3%, the biggest since January.
Thu, Sep 14 8:37 AM Annual Core CPI 1.7%, unchanged.
Thu, Sep 14 8:36 AM August CPI of 0.4% was the largest rise in seven months. Year-over-year CPI 1.9% from 1.7% in July.
Thu, Sep 14 8:33 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 284K vs 310K expected.
Thu, Sep 14 8:31 AM August CPI 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. Core CPI 0.2%, in line. Slightly hotter CPI pushes Bond prices lower.
Thu, Sep 14 8:14 AM U.S. dollar index 92.35, -0.15.
Thu, Sep 14 8:13 AM Key inflation data from the Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30.
Thu, Sep 14 8:12 AM The 10-yr T Note yield edges higher to 2.20%.
Thu, Sep 14 8:12 AM WTI oil at $49.89/barrel, +$0.59.
Thu, Sep 14 8:11 AM MBS open flat to lower with S&P futures hovering near unchanged.

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
Mortgage Lender NMLS# 514390
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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