Mortgage Rates & Investors are willing to take a risk after Irma

September 12th, 2017

Rates Effective September 12, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

 

Suggestions that can change during the day:  Mortgage Bond prices continue to edge lower as Stocks trade higher hitting record levels. Locking is recommended.

After close Commentary: Mortgage Bonds edged lower today as the safety trade diminishes. Stocks rallied with the Fed on hold and as Irma weakens and turns out to be not as bad as first predicted, though there is damage in the Keys and throughout Florida. There were no economic reports released today. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon saw a modest loss of 6bp ending at 103.34. The Dow rose by 61.49 points to 22,118.86, the S&P closed at at record high of 2,496.48, +8.37 points while the tech heavy NASDAQ gained 22.01 points to end the session at 6,454.28. WTI oil settled at $48.23/barrel, near unchanged. 10-yr T Note yield rose to 2.17% from this morning's low of 2.12%. Tomorrow's economic data is limited to August PPI.

Late morning Commentary:   The U.S. Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that household incomes rose between 2015 and 2016, while the poverty rate declined marginally. Median household income in the United States in 2016 was $59,039, an increase in real terms of 3.2% from the 2015 median income of $57,230. This is the second consecutive annual increase in median household income. The nation’s official poverty rate in 2016 was 12.7 percent, with 40.6 million people in poverty, 2.5 million fewer than in 2015. The percentage of people without health insurance coverage for the entire 2016 calendar year was 8.8%, down from 9.1% in 2015.

After the recent spike at the pumps, gas prices are beginning to level off as refineries in the Gulf Coast begin to come back on-line after Hurricane Harvey devastated the area. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is at $2.67, just above the $2.65 seen last week. Prices will most likely decrease in the next month when refineries come back to more normal levels of output.

A report out this week by Goldman Sachs says that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma could have a big negative effect on third quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Hurricane Harvey could be the most costly natural disaster since WWII. Goldman Sachs predicts that as much as 1.0% could be knocked off GDP in the third quarter to bring it to 2% from the recent reading of 3% in the second quarter. However, Goldman did say that declines in GDP caused by natural disasters usually see big increases in subsequent quarters due in part to rebuilding the areas impacted.

9:48 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon Down 9 bp at a price of 103.31  down 34 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.31 High 103.41 Low 103.28

Dailey Moving averages we are currently above:  200 $102.60  100  $103.01   50 103.10.  Others numbers psychological numbers New First level of Support 25 day moving average 103.40,  New Second Level of support $103.25

First level of resistance $103.69 low of 11/10/16 Second level of resistance $103.90 half of the trading range of 11/10/16.  The Presidential election was 11/08/16.  On that day the MBS closed at $104.91

Tue, Sep 12 9:36 AM Stocks open higher, Dow +70 points.
Tue, Sep 12 8:38 AM U.S. dollar index 92.02, +0.17.
Tue, Sep 12 8:30 AM WTI oil at $48.25/barrel, +$0.18.
Tue, Sep 12 8:30 AM The only economic data point this morning will be the JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) report at 10:00 a.m.
Tue, Sep 12 8:25 AM The 10-yr T Note yield continues to rise, now at 2.14% from yesterday's close of 2.12%.
Tue, Sep 12 8:22 AM The UN also banned North Korean textile exports and fuel supplies to the country have been capped.
Tue, Sep 12 8:18 AM North Korea rejected a UN Security Council resolution on Tuesday imposing tougher sanctions, and said the U.S. would face the "greatest pain" it had ever received.
Tue, Sep 12 8:16 AM The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 2,488.11 yesterday.
Tue, Sep 12 8:12 AM Apple will be in focus today as the world's largest company by market capitalization is expected to unveil the 10th anniversary edition of the iPhone at an event that starts at 1:00 p.m. ET at its new multi-billion campus in Cupertino, California.
Tue, Sep 12 8:10 AM Mortgage Bond prices open lower as they continue to retreat from their recent highs. S&P futures higher as Irma further weakens and as the risk trade is back in vogue.
Tue, Sep 12 8:09 AM The Fannie Mae 30-year 3.5% coupon had its Monthly Rollover last night with the effect being -16bp.

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.271%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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