Mortgage Rates, Irma weakens and North Korea Tensions Ease

September 11th, 2017

Rates Effective September 11, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bond prices are lower to begin the week as Stock prices surge on easing North Korean and Hurricane Irma tensions. Locking is recommended.

After close Commentary: With fears easing surrounding North Korea and Irma, Stocks rallied to begin the week as the closely watched S&P 500 closed at a record high. The rally in the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ occurred as the fears from North Korea and Irma faded as investors bought with both hands. The Bond closed at 103.56, -25bp. There were no economic reports released today. Today's 3-yr Note auction was decent at best. The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 2,488.11, +26.68 points. The Dow gained 259.58 to 22,057.37, while the tech heavy NASDAQ closed at 6,432.26. WTI oil closed at $48.07/barrel, +$0.59. The yield on the 10-yr T Note closed at 2.13% after hitting a low of 2.01% early Thursday morning. There are no economic reports due for release tomorrow. The Treasury will sell $20B 10-yr Notes tomorrow.

Late morning Commentary:   Mortgage originations surged in the second quarter of 2017 despite a decline in refinancing. Black Knight Financial Services reports that first lien mortgages rose 20% from the first quarter and are up 16% from a year ago, totaling $467 billion in the second quarter. During the second quarter, refis declined 20%, or $37 billion, from the first quarter to 31% of the market share of originations, the lowest level in 16 years. The average purchase loan origination amount rose to an all-time high of $286,000 in the second quarter of 2017.

U.S. Stocks are in rally mode to begin the week as North Korea and Hurricane Irma fears ease. Over the weekend, North Korea was supposed to test a new missile, but instead threw a party marking its government's 69th anniversary. Hurricane Irma made landfall over the weekend in Florida, but the storm was not as catastrophic as first thought to be. Stocks had been under pressure for the past several weeks, but that cloud has now been lifted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are near all-time highs.

Last week, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that the central bank should be cautious on raising interest rates as inflation is “well short” of the Fed’s target range of 2%. Inflation data has been running low for some time as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE, is at 1.4% year over year and has been edging lower for the past five months. If inflation continues to run low, home loan rates will remain low. This week inflation numbers will be seen from the wholesale level, the Producer Price Index, and the Consumer Price Index. 

Mon, Sep 11 9:32 AM Stocks surge at the open, Dow +166 points.
Mon, Sep 11 8:30 AM The Treasury will sell $24B 3-yr Notes today, results at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Mon, Sep 11 8:22 AM North Korea did not test a long-range missile over the weekend.
Mon, Sep 11 8:21 AM The Monthly Bond Rollover will take place after the close of trading this evening.
Mon, Sep 11 8:20 AM U.S. dollar index 91.57, +0.24.
Mon, Sep 11 8:20 AM WTI oil at $47.71/barrel, +$0.23.
Mon, Sep 11 8:18 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.10% from Friday's close of 2.06%.
Mon, Sep 11 8:18 AM Hurricane Irma not as bad as expected though there is extensive damage throughout Florida.
Mon, Sep 11 8:17 AM There are no economic reports due for release today. The rest of the week features CPI, PPI and Retail Sales.
Mon, Sep 11 8:12 AM Let us take a moment today and reflect on those who lives were lost on September 11.
Mon, Sep 11 8:10 AM MBS open lower as S&P futures rise as Irma weakens and as North Korean tensions ease.

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.271%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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