Mortgage Rates, Low Inflation & North Korea

September 7th, 2017

Rates Effective September 7, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.750% (3.835%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bond prices seem to be stalling at the November highs. Locking is recommended.

After close Commentary: The safe haven trade was back in vogue today as Stocks closed near unchanged levels. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon rose by 19bp to end the session at 103.88. The Dow fell modestly by 22.86 points to 21,784.78, the S&P closed near unchanged at 2,465.10, while the NASDAQ saw a 4.55 gain settling at 6,397.86. WTI oil closed at $49.09/barrel, near unchanged. 10-yr T Note yield 2.04%, the lowest close since November 8. There are no economic reports due for release tomorrow.

Late morning Commentary:   The fallout from Hurricane Harvey was felt in the surge in Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits in the latest week. With the destruction in southern Texas, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 62,000 to 298,000, the highest level in more than two years and the largest increase since November 2012. However, the underlying strong trend in the labor market remains intact.

A government shutdown was averted yesterday after President Trump and democratic leaders came to an agreement to fund the government for three more months. The agreement also calls for more than $7 billion in aid for Hurricane Harvey. A basic function of Congress is to fund the government every year with the next fiscal year beginning on October 1.

Mortgage rates continue to decline due in part to low inflation levels and tensions in North Korea which pushed investors into the safe haven of the Bond markets. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 3.78% this week, its fifth straight weekly decline. That rate does carry an average 0.5 point added on top. Last year this time the rate was 3.44%. 

9:01 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 22 bp at a price of 103.91  up 12 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.75 High 103.94 Low 103.75

Dailey Moving averages we are currently above:  200 $102.58  100  $103.00   50 103.06  and 25 103.36 Others numbers psychological numbers New First level of Support 103.47,  New Second Level of support $103.34

First level of resistance $103.69 low of 11/10/16 Second level of resistance $103.90 half of the trading range of 11/10/16.  The Presidential election was 11/08/16.  On that day the MBS closed at $104.91

Thu, Sep 07 11:13 AM MBS at session highs gaining back yesterday's losses and then some.
Thu, Sep 07 10:29 AM The yield on the 10-yr T Note falls to 2.04%, the lowest since November 10.
Thu, Sep 07 10:12 AM Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed rate mortgage fell to 3.78% this week, the fifth straight weekly decline, with an average 0.5 point added on top.
Thu, Sep 07 10:01 AM The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ fall into negative territory.
Thu, Sep 07 9:33 AM Stocks open slightly higher. Dow +28 points.
Thu, Sep 07 8:45 AM The inflation reading unit labor costs decline to 0.2% from 0.6%, further signs of lower inflation.
Thu, Sep 07 8:41 AM The ECB leaves rates unchanged and no change to the asset purchase program. ECB Chief Draghi says stimulus still needed.
Thu, Sep 07 8:33 AM Q2 Productivity second read 1.5% from the first read of 0.9%.
Thu, Sep 07 8:30 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims spike 62K to 298K vs the 239K expected due in a big way to job losses in southern Texas after Harvey ripped through the area last week.
Thu, Sep 07 8:28 AM The Fed's Beige Book yesterday showed that the U.S. economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace in July through mid-August, but inflation levels remain low.
Thu, Sep 07 8:23 AM Prices at the pump continue to rise. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is at $2.67, up from $2.44 a week ago and up from $2.34 a month ago.
Thu, Sep 07 8:21 AM The dollar index is at an 18-month low as December rate hike chances decline, which is keeping the greenback under pressure.
Thu, Sep 07 8:20 AM WTI oil $48.77/barrel, -$0.39.
Thu, Sep 07 8:15 AM U.S. dollar index 91.82, -0.43.
Thu, Sep 07 8:11 AM The yield on the 10-yr T Note at 2.08% from yesterday's close of 2.10%.
Thu, Sep 07 8:10 AM Mortgage Bond prices edge higher at the open as S&P futures point to a flat open when the bell rings at 9:30 a.m. ET on Wall Street.
Thu, Sep 07 8:03 AM The government shutdown has been averted, but North Korean jitters linger while Irma races across the Caribbean leaving a path of destruction in its wake

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.750% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $926.23 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.835%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.271%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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