Mortgage Rates, Inflation Tame & Employment Report tomorrow

August 31st, 2017

Rates Effective August 31st, 2017 11:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Ahead of tomorrow's big headline risk in the August Jobs Report and with rates extremely attractive, locking is advised.

After close Commentary: Coming Soon

12:49 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 3 bp at a price of 103.56  down 3 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.50 High 103.56 Low 103.50

Dailey Moving averages we are currently above:  200 $102.57  100  $102.96   50 103.02  and 25 103.25 Others numbers psychological numbers New First level of Support 103.47,  New Second Level of support $103.34

First level of resistance $103.69 low of 11/10/16 Second level of resistance $103.90 half of the trading range of 11/10/16.  The Presidential election was 11/08/16.  On that day the MBS closed at $104.91

See 11/08/17 rate sheet by clicking on the link below. We are not that far away from those rates;

https://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/7716/rates-effective-as-of-november-7-2016-930-am-est

Late morning Commentary:  Inflation remained tame in July as evidenced by the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). The Core PCE rose 1.4% from July 2016 to July 2017, down from 1.5% in June; it has been declining since the beginning of the year. The Fed's target range is 2%. With inflation running low, the Fed will most likely be on hold to raise the short term Fed Funds Rate at future FOMC meetings.

Mortgage rates continued to decline this week in this low inflation environment. Freddie Mac reported Thursday morning that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 3.82% this week and has fallen four weeks in a row. That rate does carry a 0.5 point added on top. Last year this time the rate was 3.46%. Freddie Mac also reported that the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 3.12% from 3.16%.

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported on Thursday that Pending Home Sales in July fell 0.8% and has declined four of the last five months. The NAR said that staggering low inventories throughout the country continue to stall contract activity. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says, “The housing market remains stuck in a holding pattern with little signs of breaking through. The pace of new listings is not catching up with what’s being sold at an astonishingly fast pace.”

 

Thu, Aug 31 11:52 AM Treasury Sec Mnuchin says on CNBC that they have a "very detailed" tax plan ready.
Thu, Aug 31 11:27 AM July Pending Home Sales fell 0.8%, below the +0.5% expected, while the Chicago PMI was in line at 58.9. The data had little impact on trading.
Thu, Aug 31 10:16 AM National average gas prices rise $0.10 this week alone after the devastation from Hurricane Harvey.
Thu, Aug 31 10:12 AM Mortgage rates continue to decline as the 30-yr fixed rate fell to 3.82% this week with 0.5 point on top, reports Freddie Mac.
Thu, Aug 31 9:31 AM Stocks open higher. Dow +52 points.
Thu, Aug 31 8:53 AM The Core PCE on an annual basis ticked down to 1.4% from 1.5% as inflation remains muted and will be a key metric for the fed members at the September FOMC meeting.
Thu, Aug 31 8:49 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 236K, in line and near unchanged from the previous week.
Thu, Aug 31 8:38 AM The New York Fed will purchase up to $2.05B in 30-yr Fannie/Freddie 3.5% and 4% coupons beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Thu, Aug 31 8:35 AM Not much reaction to the economic data as traders look ahead to the August Jobs Report set to be released tomorrow morning.
Thu, Aug 31 8:31 AM July Core PCE 0.1%, in line.
Thu, Aug 31 8:31 AM Personal Income 0.4% vs 0.3%. Personal Spending 0.3% vs 0.4% expected.
Thu, Aug 31 8:29 AM U.S. dollar index 93.24, +0.42.
Thu, Aug 31 8:29 AM WTI oil $46/barrel near unchanged.
Thu, Aug 31 8:26 AM The 10-yr T Note yield at 2.14%, near unchanged.
Thu, Aug 31 8:24 AM President Trump said yesterday he wants to see the corporate tax rate drop to 15% but offered no new tax plan, leaving the proposal in the hands of Congress.
Thu, Aug 31 8:23 AM S&P futures higher after solid global economic data and after yesterday's 3% GDP and better than expected ADP data.
Thu, Aug 31 8:19 AM MBS open near unchanged ahead of a plethora of data that includes Personal Income & Spending, Core PCE, Chicago PMI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales.

***Rate Assumptions

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.271%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
Mortgage Lender NMLS# 514390
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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