Mortgage Rates & ADP better than expected

August 30th, 2017

Rates Effective August 30th, 2017 11:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Coming Soon

After close Commentary: With MBS prices stalling near the 2017 highs and the big headline risk in the August Jobs Report that will be released on Friday morning, we are advising locking here in the short-term, at least two to three weeks out. Longer term, floating is prudent for the tensions in North Korea could pick up and put a dent in the U.S. Stock market sending investors into the safe haven of the Bond markets. In addition, yesterday's spinning top formation could lead prices lower in the short term. We wrote, "A spinning top formation is found after a prolonged uptrend and suggests that the bulls are losing interest and that a reversal is in the cards."

Late morning Commentary:   The second read on second quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 3% from the initial read of 2.6%. The boost was fueled by a pop in consumer spending to 3.3% from 2.8% and an increase in business spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The 3% boost in GDP was the best reading since the 3.2% registered in the first quarter of 2015. GDP is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. It is considered the broadest measure of economic activity.

Job growth in the U.S. continued to be a bright spot in the U.S. economy in August due in part to solid gains in manufacturing and construction jobs. The ADP Private Payrolls Report for August showed that employers added 237,000 new positions versus the 180,000 expected. In addition, July was revised higher to 201,000 from 178,000. The 237,000 was the fastest pace since March. The ADP Report comes ahead of the government's Jobs Report which will be released Friday morning.

Due to the devastation in the Houston, Texas area, gas prices have pushed higher in recent days. There are many refineries in the area that have been shut down by the storm. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline has risen to $2.40 from $2.37 yesterday and up from $2.30 a month ago. “No doubt, Harvey has impacted operations and access to refineries in the Gulf Coast. However a clear understanding of overall damage at the refineries is unknown,” said Jeanette Casselano, AAA spokesperson. “Despite the country’s overall oil and gasoline inventories being at or above five-year highs, until there is clear picture of damage and an idea when refineries can return to full operational status, gas prices will continue to increase.”

9:42 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 9 bp at a price of 103.47  down 12 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.50 High 103.50 Low 103.41

Dailey Moving averages we are currently above:  200 $102.57  100  $102.95   50 103.01  and 25 103.22 Others numbers psychological numbers New First level of Support 103.47,  New Second Level of support $103.34

First level of resistance $103.69 low of 11/10/16 Second level of resistance $103.90 half of the trading range of 11/10/16

Wed, Aug 30 9:26 AM The MBA reports that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged last week and at the lows seen in November. The 30-yr fixed conforming rat 4.11%, jumbo 4%, FHA 4.02%. Those rates have at least 0.30 point added on top.
Wed, Aug 30 9:25 AM The MBAs purchase index -2.7%, refinance index -2%.
Wed, Aug 30 9:23 AM The MBA reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, fell 2.3% in the latest week, despite rates being at their lowest levels since November.
Wed, Aug 30 9:05 AM Within the GDP report it showed that consumer spending grew at a 3.3% rate, up from the 2.8% pace reported in the first reading. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Wed, Aug 30 9:00 AM President Trump Tweets, "The U.S. has been been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!" S&P futures edge lower on the headline and after the strong GDP data which could give the Fed room to raise rates.
Wed, Aug 30 8:37 AM S&P futures remain near unchanged after the strong economic data.
Wed, Aug 30 8:30 AM Q2 2017 GDP second read rises to 3.0% from 2.6% in the first read.
Wed, Aug 30 8:17 AM ADP Private Payrolls for August 237K vs the 180K expected. July revised higher to 201K from 178K.
Wed, Aug 30 8:11 AM The second read on Q2 2017 GDP will be released at 8:30.
Wed, Aug 30 8:10 AM MBS open slightly lower.
Wed, Aug 30 8:10 AM S&P futures unchanged as N Korea concerns ease; data in focus.
Wed, Aug 30 8:09 AM U.S. dollar index 92.56, +0.37.
Wed, Aug 30 8:07 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.14%, near unchanged.
Wed, Aug 30 8:07 AM WTI oil -$0.33 at $46.13/barrel.
Wed, Aug 30 8:04 AM MBS look to open near unchanged ahead of the 8:15 a.m. ET release of the August ADP Private Payrolls Report.
Wed, Aug 30 8:02 AM The death toll rises to 22 in the Texas area as Harvey makes a second landfall in Louisiana.

 

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.271%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

 

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
Mortgage Lender NMLS# 514390
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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