Mortgage Rates & Searching for a Catalyst

August 22nd, 2017

Rates Effective August 22nd, 2017 12:30 PM EST

30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. **Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bonds are edging lower as Stocks rally. Short-term locking is recommended,

After close Commentary:  MBS traded in a very narrow range in today's session ending modestly lower. Stocks rallied in a big way, led by the tech sector, hope on tax reform and most likely a raise to the U.S. debt ceiling. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon lost 9bp to end at 103.22 and right near support one (S1, 103.19). There were no economic reports released today. The Dow surged by 196.14 points to 21,899.89, the S&P 500 was up 24.14 points to 2,452.51, while the NASDAQ gained a whopping 84.35 points to end at 6,297.47. WTI oil closed at $47.64/barrel, +$0.27. 10-yr yield 2.21%. July New Home Sales will be released tomorrow. 

Late morning Commentary: U.S. house prices rose 1.6% in the second quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices were up 6.6% from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017. FHFA’s monthly index for June was up 0.1% from May. “U.S. house prices rose in nearly every state during the second quarter,” said FHFA Senior Economist William Doerner. “New home sales are climbing but, relative to the overall population, they still remain low from a historical perspective. The tight inventory is a major explanation for why house prices have been increasing every quarter over the last six years.”

There are no major economic reports due for release today and it is quiet on the geopolitical front. Expect a quiet summer trading session today with many traders and investors away on vacation. The Jackson Hole Fed-sponsored Symposium kicks off on Thursday and the markets will await speeches from European Central Bank Chief Draghi and Fed Chair Yellen on Friday. New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) recently released its expectations for back-to-school spending. The NRF reports that spending for both school and college is projected to hit $83.6 billion, up from last year's $75.8 billion. Families with children in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $687.72 each, for a total of $29.5 billion. College students and their families are expected to spend an average of $969.88, for a total of $54.1 billion.

8:41 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down  9 bp at a price of 103.22  down 12 bp when rates were set Yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.22 High 103.25 Low 103.19

Dailey Moving averages we are currently above:  200 $102.61  100  $102.90 25 103.09  and 50 102.97   Others numbers psychological numbers 103.00 , 103.19, 103.34

Tue, Aug 22 8:33 AM U.S. dollar index 93.41, +0.40.
Tue, Aug 22 8:26 AM Politico reports that President Trump's aides have made significant progress in preparing a tax overhaul plan.
Tue, Aug 22 8:25 AM There are no major economic reports due for release today.
Tue, Aug 22 8:24 AM WTI oil at $47.33/barrel, near unchanged.
Tue, Aug 22 8:19 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.20% from yesterday's close of 2.18%.
Tue, Aug 22 8:18 AM S&P futures are higher as traders bargain hunt after the recent decline.
Tue, Aug 22 8:15 AM After failing to overtake resistance one (R1) at 103.34, the Fannie Mae 3.5% 30-yr coupon has retreated from that level and now rests on support one (S1) at the 103.19.
Tue, Aug 22 8:13 AM MBS edge lower at the open as the market searches for a catalyst ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium that begins on Thursday.

**Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.271%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

Mission Statement

As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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