Mortgage Rates & Political Tension

August 18th, 2017

Rates Effective August 18th, 2017 12:30 PM EST

30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

15-Year Fixed Rate 3.125% (3.271% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. **Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Lower Stock prices are boosting Mortgage Bonds this morning as the week comes to an end. Carefully floating is recommended.

After close Commentary: Not a lot of action in the Mortgage Bond markets today as prices traded in a narrow range for most of the session. The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon closed at 103.28, -6bp. Stocks had a lackluster session as the major indices closed lower. The Dow lost 76.22 points to 21,674.51, the S&P closed 2,425.55, -4.46 points, while the NASDAQ fell by 5.38 points to end at 6,216.52. WTI oil closed at $48.51/barrel, +$1.42. 10-yr T Note yield 2.19%. Next week’s economic calendar is on the light side with just New and Existing Home Sales in the spotlight. Have a great weekend! 

Late morning Commentary:  Freddie Mac reports that cash sales accounted for around 18% of all home sales in June, below the peak of 35%, but still well above the historical average of 10%. If cash sales remain around 20%, that would translate to $172 billion less in mortgage originations than would occur if the cash share returned to its historical norm. In addition, Freddie reports that Housing Starts were lower than expected in the second quarter of 2017. While starts should improve in the second half of 2017, Freddie Mac expects them to remain well below their long run average at around 1.24 million.

Fannie Mae also reported this week that looming political tensions and the growing potential for a U.S. government shutdown as well as a technical default pose risks to the U.S. economy. Fannie Mae sees full year economic growth (Gross Domestic Product) rising 2%, according to the Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group’s August 2017 Economic and Housing Outlook. Fannie Mae sees slightly stronger economic growth in the second half of 2017, with consumer spending and business investment helping to support growth. 

Fri, Aug 18 8:42 AM Freddie Mac reports that cash sales accounted for around 18% of all home sales in June, below the peak of 35%, but still well above the historical average of 10%.
Fri, Aug 18 8:27 AM The S&P 500 is poised for its second weekly decline due in part to political turmoil and the attacks in Barcelona.
Fri, Aug 18 8:23 AM Stocks are also in cautious mode after the horrific terrorist attacks in Barcelona that claimed 14 lives.
Fri, Aug 18 8:16 AM  WTI oil $47.21/barrel, +$0.11.
Fri, Aug 18 8:16 AM The August Consumer Sentiment Index will be released at 10.
Fri, Aug 18 8:15 AM Fed's Kaplan said yesterday the central bank should be "very patient and judicious" as it considers whether to raise rates or not. Mr. Kaplan will be speaking at an event this afternoon.
Fri, Aug 18 8:15 AM 10-yr yield 2.18%.
Fri, Aug 18 8:15 AM U.S. dollar index 93.47, -0.05.
Fri, Aug 18 8:11 AM S&P futures flat as prices are being capped by growing concerns over pro-growth policies in Washington D.C.
Fri, Aug 18 8:09 AM After their two-day run higher, MBS open near unchanged as the week comes to a close.

**Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1393.22 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.271%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

Mission Statement

As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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