Mortgage Rates and Fed Minutes

August 16th, 2017

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bond prices are trying to stabilize at current levels. Floating is today's suggestion

Rates Effective August 16th, 2017 12:30 PM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. **Rate Assumptions below the news

 Conforming loans $424,100 and under

 30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR)

After close Commentary: Today's Fed minutes gave a rather dovish tone as members are worried about the persistent low inflation levels. Couple the Fed minutes with weak Housing Starts and Building Permits, caused Bond prices to rise, though the gains were modest. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 103.22, +19bp. Stocks rose on the Fed view but prices were capped on Trump agenda doubts. The Dow gained 25.88 points to 22,024.87, the NASDAQ was up 12.09 points to 6,345.10, while the closely watched S&P 500 rose 3.50 points to end at 2,468.11. WTI oil closed at $46.78/barrel, -$0.77. 10-yr yield 2.22% from this morning's high of 2.28%. Tomorrow's economic data includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed. 

 
Wed, Aug 16 2:28 PM The dovish Fed minutes lifts Bond prices.
Wed, Aug 16 2:03 PM Overall, the Fed minutes were on the dovish side.
Wed, Aug 16 2:02 PM Fed minutes reveal inflation may be below 2% longer than expected.
Wed, Aug 16 2:01 PM Some Fed members worried about low inflation.
Wed, Aug 16 2:00 PM Fed minutes reveal no launch date for unwinding its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
 

Late morning Commentary:  July Housing Starts fell 4.8% from June to an annual rate of 1.155 million units, below the 1.217 million expected. Homebuilders cite a lack of skilled labor and lots to build on and higher costs for materials for the decline in new home building. Year-over-year starts were down 5.6%.

Building Permits, a sign of future construction, fell 4.1% from June to an annual rate of 1.223 million annualized units, just below the 1.247 million expected. Within the report it showed that single-family starts, which make up the biggest share of the housing market, fell 0.5%, while multi-family dwellings (five or more units) plunged 17.1% from June to July.

Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in 2017 as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA reports that the 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rate fell 2bp to a new year-to-date low of 4.12%. In addition, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate fell 3bp to a year-to-date low of 4.04%, while the FHA fixed mortgage rate slipped 1bp to 4.01%, just above its year-to-date low of 4%. Those rates do carry at least 0.30 in points added on top of the rate. The MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, saw a slight 0.1% increase in the latest week. The MBA's refinance index rose 1.6% and the purchase index declined 1.5%.

Wed, Aug 16 12:49 PM "The King", Elvis Presley, died 40 years ago today at age 42.
Wed, Aug 16 11:51 AM The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ rise as consumer stocks gain; Fed minutes loom.
Wed, Aug 16 11:15 AM MBS able to hit session highs, though the gains are modest.
Wed, Aug 16 11:02 AM The National Association of REALTORS® reports that the national median existing single-family home price rose 6.2% to $255,600 in the second quarter of 2017 from the second quarter of 2016 ($240,700), a new all-time high.
Wed, Aug 16 9:53 AM The benchmark 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon trades in an extremely tight 6bp range this morning as traders sit on their hands ahead of the 2:00 p.m. ET release of the July Fed minutes.
Wed, Aug 16 9:39 AM Soon after the opening bell on Wall Street, the Dow is up 50 points.
Wed, Aug 16 8:54 AM Those rates reported by the MBA carry at least 0.30 in points on top of the rates.
Wed, Aug 16 8:52 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr jumbo mortgage rate down 3bp to a YTD low of 4.04%, FHA -1bp to 4.01%, just above its YTD low of 4%.
Wed, Aug 16 8:49 AM No reaction in MBS to the weaker-than-expected housing data.
Wed, Aug 16 8:42 AM U.S. dollar index 93.83, +0.07.
Wed, Aug 16 8:38 AM The MBAs refinance index +1.6%, purchase index -1.5%.
Wed, Aug 16 8:38 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr fixed conforming mortgage rate fell 2bp to a new YTD low of 4.12%.
Wed, Aug 16 8:36 AM The MBA reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, saw a slight 0.1% increase in the latest week.
Wed, Aug 16 8:32 AM July Building Permits decline 4.1% from June to an annual rate of 1.223 million vs the 1.247 million expected.
Wed, Aug 16 8:31 AM July Housing Starts slip 4.8% from June to 1.155 million annualized units, below the 1.217 million expected.
Wed, Aug 16 8:29 AM 10-yr yield 2.27%, near unchanged.
Wed, Aug 16 8:29 AM WTI oil $47.66/barrel, +$0.13.
Wed, Aug 16 8:25 AM July Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released at 8:30.
Wed, Aug 16 8:19 AM S&P futures push higher ahead of this afternoon's Fed minutes which are due to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Wed, Aug 16 8:12 AM  Stock futures point to a higher open.

**Rate Assumptions

 

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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